To steal a line from James Carville that helped get President Clinton elected ("It's the economy, stupid!), the lack of activity so far in the Atlantic Basin is due to three main factors. 1) Upper wind shear caused by strong El Nino, 2) per…
NHC has named the third storm of the season, but it wasn't either of the 2 features in the MDR. Nope, it was the swirl way out in the Atlantic that might not even last 24 hours. I understand technology allows much greater data coming from a…
Not unexpectedly, the tropical Atlantic MDR is showing signs of life. In fact, there is a whole wave train coming across Africa that will result in more possible development later this month. However, 1) we know we are in an El Nino year wi…
The Tropics have come alive worldwide with the main focus later this week will be the threat of a Hurricane affecting the Hawaii Islands. Model uncertainty can't say whether INVEST 93-C will go north or south of the Islands as a low level s…
Not much has changed in thinking from yesterday as NHC believes there are two areas for possible development way out in the Atlantic in the MDR. The first has the lower (20%) chance and is on a more southern track. The second has a higher (…
Yesterday I showed you three models that hinted at some kind of tropical development in the MDR (Main Development Region). Today's model runs continue that same theme and NHC has responded by highlighting 2 areas in the Tropical Atlantic th…
In yesterday's post, I mentioned the 1983 Hurricane season but forgot to tell you the TOTAL number of storms was only FOUR! None of the named storms came from the MDR, and all of them formed much closer to the U.S. The first (Alicia) didn't…
Yesterday Colorado State chose to keep their prediction numbers unchanged from their July update. However, today NOAA issued an update and they lowered their number of storms based on an increasing El Nino in the Pacific that will increase
Dr. Phil Klotzbach's team at Colorado State University issued their final 2026 hurricane predictions for the 2026 season today. Surprisingly, He is keeping his July numbers unchanged despite the fact that models are indicating no activity f…
The well-advertised Super El Niño is on schedule, and that, along with Saharan Dust, is killing any tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin. Just found a great graphic on Facebook that says it all. It's from a site called SnowbirdBob Weathe…
Dr. Phil Klotzbach took over the Colorado State University's seasonal hurricane forecasts after the passing of his mentor Dr. Bill Gray 10 years ago. Dr. Phil issues an initial preseason forecast in April and follows with monthly updates du…
In yesterday's blog post, I gave an incorrect time for our Grief Support meeting on Monday at Copeland Tower. It is from 10 AM to Noon in room 825 on the hotel side of the Tower. If you have recently lost a loved one and are struggling to c…